Travel blog

Friday, March 27, 2009

Is

Look at Jello's question, or Ashley Cole.




Yes, the alarmists go to great lengths to try to convince others that the science is "settled." Their incessant appeal to the consensus argument (bandwagon fallacy) is not only a clear attempt to shape peoples perception of what is known, but evidence of their misunderstanding of how scientific progress is accomplished.





The global warming proponents would do well to temper their dire predictions, pull them back into the realm of plausibility, and be forthcoming about the uncertainty. As it stands the predictions are so grossly overstated that even people with no science education can see that there is a political agenda in play here. Especially when the only solutions offered are higher taxes, greater government control, and loss of personal freedom. The general public is also exceptionally keen at smelling a rat, and has spotted the politicization of the science that favors an anti-capitalism agenda.




Yes. An example would be trying to correlate "global warming" with a "record 2008 hurricane season" when





a) "hurricanes" refers only to Atlantic Ocean storms, while Pacific Ocean storms are referred to as "cyclones," and the 2008 cyclone season was mild by any measure; so globally, on a net basis, the 2008 storm season wasn't extraordinary.





b) 2008 was a "record" hurricane season in the Atlantic only by a new parameter: not number of storms, number of named storms, or number of severe storms, but the fact that there was one per month. It's an interesting stat but it's not the metric previously used to define a "record" season. It's a bit like when Dan Duquette used to argue that under his leadership, the Red Sox "spent more days in first place" than was the case under subsequent leadership - it was true at the time but that's not the metric that is used.





and





c) the oceans stopped warming in 2003, and the theory connecting storms to global warming relied on warming oceans




I don't think it is a problem. Without it there would be nothing here at GW of Y!A

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